Survivor: Redemption Island

Melkor

Well-known member
Yeah, no time for reward challenges and the Redemption Island challenge. It turns out (in my mind anyway) that letting the people observe the challenge has kind of been its (excuse me) redeeming quality because it has allowed people to get information about the other tribe and may lead to a more interesting merge.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
I guess. I still like the element of surprise though; neither tribe knows who's coming back until they actually do. :)
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Forgot to mention last Friday that I saw the 3/30 show.

However, now I can't remember much of it :) Philip is still the loose cannon, Dave is on the outs with his tribe, Sarita got blind-sided and didn't bring her stuff... that's all I can really remember.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Got caught up (well, saw the 4/6 show on Wednesday, but forgot to post about it yesterday)

4/6: Well, it certainly sucked for Matt to be voted back to Redemption Island. I think he was trying to be honest with Rob when he was telling about possibly switching, but obviously that didn't go over well with Rob. However, if he didn't tell him and Rob found out about it later, say from Andrea, then Matt would still be in a pickle. It's kinda damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Oh, the review from that show reminded me from the 3/30 show about Rob pulling Philip around in the challenge. What's up with Philip's physical fitness? And no one seemed to mention it, at least that was shown.

4/13: Well, Rob is sounding more and more like Russell. I guess once he cemented his control, they really are alike. I mean, he does make sense from his viewpoint, but telling his tribe not to eat the fish? And they almost all follow along, except for Grant? Wow.... and punishing whats-her-name for not telling him about Ralph's overtures and not planning to bring her to the final 3 but instead Philip and Natalie, that's almost a Russell move. Except Russell would immediately move to vote her off instead of keeping her around for her vote and letting be unaware :)

Former Zapatara tribe looks like they're in trouble though, unless something happens, they're going to get picked off one by one.
 
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EricBess

Guest
Yeah, I don't know what's going on with Rob right now. He's always liked to be in control, but I don't remember him ever being such a dictator before. Grant is testing the waters, but he got pulled back in, only getting a small bite of the fish. If he's not careful, he's going to have an uprising. Right now, it seems like everyone understands that he's in control and they more fear him than respect him. Prior to this episode, I think he had their respect, so I'm not really sure this is going to work out for him in the end.

He's right that if he can get the rest of his tribe to be cool towards the former members of the other tribe, they might favor him, but he's not winning any friends on the other tribe by showing his dictatorial nature.

As for Phillip, it's amazing how someone can be so "on the outs" and so "in" at the same time. He's not stupid, though. His comment about Rob wanting to take him to the end because nobody likes him is spot on. Almost makes me wonder if he's going to try to pull a "I'm really likable, but being unlikable was my strategy to get to the finals"...I'm not sure something like that would work, but...
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Right now, it seems like everyone understands that he's in control and they more fear him than respect him. Prior to this episode, I think he had their respect, so I'm not really sure this is going to work out for him in the end.
Well, it's actually hard to tell if they fear or respect him, since they aren't showing any of the rest of the tribe's reaction to his leadership. Well, we know Philip's position, but not the girls or Grant's to any degree. Natalie seems to at least still be on his side as she's reporting on what's going on in the tribe.

I'm not sure if Zapatera dislikes the way Rob is in charge or just merely noting it as an observation and their frustration at their inability to bring someone over because Rob has full control. Dave at least respected the vote and strategy behind voting Matt out, so it's hard to tell as well.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Saw the 4/20 show.

Philip is just whack; I mean, I guess I can understand where he's coming from about equating "crazy" with "racism" from his point of view, but when *everyone* thinks he's crazy, he pretty much is; they're not being racist.

Other than that, actually a boring episode... Zapatera is just falling one by one.

Oh, and it seems Matt is cracking, although still doing pretty well in the Redemption Island challenge.

Here's some links about that episode:

Survivor 4/20

Survivor 4/20
 
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EricBess

Guest
Yeah, what I can't figure out about Phillip is whether he is genuinetly crazy, or whether he realizes that the only reason he's still around is because Rob is planning on taking him to the finals.
 
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EricBess

Guest
Last episode - more of the same. Nothing really surprising. Even the double-elimination wasn't really a shock. Ometempe never really made any headway into swaying anyone. Thanks to Phil, they never really even figured out who was at the bottom of the pecking order to try to get someone to switch.
 

Melkor

Well-known member
And the two non-Andrea girls have a ridiculous amount of devotion to Rob. I sometimes wonder if some of the younger women they get for the show have actually watched a lot of Survivor. If they had then they would know that they've got almost no shot in the jury against Rob. Particularly if Rob brought both of them, as they're basically indistinguishable from each other as players. I guess you could look at the first Russell season (Nicaragua) as a template but (1) the winner there (I don't remember her name) was certainly more capable than these girls, and (2) Russell burned bridges like you wouldn't believe. I think Rob has taken pains to make sure that he isn't the bad guy and now everybody in his alliance is firmly convinced (except Andrea) that he's taking them with him, when they really need to be voting him out.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Finally saw this so I wouldn't be backlogged after tonight's show :)

I think Andrea is pretty sure she's going - nothing was shown to the contrary. And I agree that Rob has done a masterful job at convincing everyone that he's taking them to the finals with him so that no one's inclined to betray him. But I think the only "sure" one is Philip :)

My wife was commenting that after the double-elimination, Redemption Island is starting to look like a tribe unto itself :) Maybe that's to be another twist...
 
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EricBess

Guest
My personal thinking is that this is going down to the final 3, where the last two non-eliminated contestants will be joined by whomever stays alive from redemption island. In other words, whomever "comes back" from redemption island at this point will go straight to the finals.

The way things are happening, though, maybe I have it backwards. Maybe the last man standing will face 2 people from redpemtion in the finals.

All along, I think that they made the correct decision in keeping Rob. He's very good at strategy and knows how to play the game. But I agree that it is time to cut him loose. Now that they have merged, they don't need him anymore and he's going to end up winning the whole thing if they let him. I think the problem is, people are a bit star-crossed. Rob is a bit of a romatic figure and while the girls have to know that he already has his permanent "alliance" with Amber, there is something romantic about all of that that keeps them drawn to him and he's doing nothing to discourage that.

I think Andrea and Grant both ultimately realize this, but at this point, how do you go about it? Will the others "turn you in" faster than they would go along with you? I think deep down, they all might realize it, but if everyone thinks that everyone else is loyal to Rob...

Also - all it really takes right now is for one other person to still be loyal to Rob that you didn't expect. I personally don't think the immunity idol is a big deal, but it does buy you that. If you have your gang of 4 trying to get rid of Rob, but you know that one of you has to be eliminated to do it...
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Well, I think from their standpoint, they don't need to cut him loose but individually, they each think they're going to the finals with him. The only exception may be Andrea, but he's tight with Grant, the other two girls, and Philip. Each of them thinks they're going to the finals with him and someone else so why rock the boat?

Honestly, I think it is a shame that someone who's played the game before, especially *that* many times, may win, but what you can do as a watcher? :)

Oh yeah, you jogged my memory about the immunity idol... it's amazing that it's pretty much become a non-factor right now, at least from what's shown. No one seems to be searching for it, meaning they don't care because they think they're secure in their position or they aren't showing it. But I think it's the former.
 
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EricBess

Guest
Well, after last night they are down to 5 people now, with 4 on redemption island. I think there are 3 now on the jury, but this one has been odd with the jury because of redemption island.

Honestly, it feels like most people are just waiting the last 8 days for things to play out and aren't really even playing the game anymore. Phil says he has something up his sleeve and Rob is starting to suspect that he does anyway, so he may be gone next. Honestly, I'm not sure who besides Rob deserves to win at this point, but I'm not sure anyone would actually give him the money simply because he has been on so many times. Still, he has never actually won himself, so while I agree with you to an extent, you cannot say he hasn't been working hard for the win and no one else really has been. Grant could probably win over him and Phil if he really does have such a good argument, but I don't see how you could pick either of the two girls to win at this point.

Of course, I still think someone is coming straight out of redeption island into the finals, so that's a huge wild card. If people stick with tribal lines, anyone on Ometepe could win just because of the numbers, but that would be really lame, IMO.
 

Melkor

Well-known member
I'm beginning to think that they'll be sending multiple people back from Redemption Island at the same time. Probably wait till 4 and then send 2 back.
 
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EricBess

Guest
Could be. Keep in mind, though, they usually have the finale the week after the Amazing Race finale, so if they do that again this year, there is only 1 more episode on Wednesday, followed by a 2-3 hour finale the next Sunday. That would indicate only 2 more tribal counsels, maybe 3 before the final tribal.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
Saw last week's show while last night's was playing :)

Yeah, I'm not sure who would be next to win after Rob. I agree that he's worked the most but then, he has been on so many times within the past 10 years, so it seems kind of bogus (you all know how I feel about bringing back past contestants :) ). Philip says he has some "oral argument", but if he does make it, I think the number of people's feather's of whom he's rustled is more than those who might think he's played a "good game" or followed his strategy of being crazy so he'd be taken to the finals. Still, I never would have thought Michael to give up time with his loved one *and* give it to the others who voted him out, so who knows what might happen or what people on th jury will think.

Andrea certainly was blindsided and could hold a grudge, so she might not vote for any Omatepe tribemates.
 
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EricBess

Guest
The more Phil talks, the more I think that his oral argument is just going to be "I did this on purpose", but I think he's gone too far. It is one thing to "play the villian" to make people want to take you to the finals, but he's crossed a lot of lines and actually gone far enough to offend several people. Coming at the end and saying, "I didn't really mean any of it" I think will be seen more as insulting than to have any result he's expecting to see. Sort of like how Russel has made it to the finals twice, but can't figure out why they didn't just hand him the money both times. I think Phil does have a better change than Russel ever did because he's over the top enough to say that it was an act, but I still think he's gone way to far, particularly with the girls, and made it personal.

Can't say too much about this weeks episode without giving it away, but I will say that if redemption island does lead right back into the finals, then they need to start thinking about getting someone onto redeption island that can beat Mike. I think that if either Mike or Matt end up in the finals, they probably will win - either will get the Ometempe votes, which by numbers alone may be enough. Matt will get votes from both sides just for beating the odds if he gets that far.

What I don't get is why Rob wouldn't want to end up in the finals with the two girls. I think that's would be the most clear path to victory for him if it is final 3. Everyone will vote either for him or against him and honestly, there really isn't much right now that distinguishes Ashley and Natalie. Natalie is a bit nicer, but both have really riden coattails, so votes against Rob would likely be split randomly between the two girls. He's been pretty clear for a while now that he's hoping to end up in the finals with Natalie and Phil.
 

Spiderman

Administrator
Staff member
The more Phil talks, the more I think that his oral argument is just going to be "I did this on purpose", but I think he's gone too far. It is one thing to "play the villian" to make people want to take you to the finals, but he's crossed a lot of lines and actually gone far enough to offend several people
I agree. Like I said, it depends how the people on the jury view his play. They might look past it and say, yeah, it was a valid strategy or like Russell, say it went to far and that's not how the game is meant to be played (or at least, when the jury members are in it)

Gotta see last night's to really comment on the rest :)
 
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