You are at 3. You have a creature in play big enough to kill your opponent. Your opponent has a Mogg Maniac in play.

Kindle #1 or Incinerate?
But seriously...
Giz, I do think there are situations where you choose Kindle over Incinerate. They are absurd, utterly idiotic situations, but they exist. Consider the existance of a moron. This particular moron plays Magic, and likes combo decks. (This is a Bad Combination(tm), but consider it anyways.) This moron, hereafter referred to as Fred, builds himself a deck.
This deck is Bad. It goes off in such a manner that Fred gets sixteen extra red mana on the final turn, and uses a combination of Urza's Blueprints, Voltaic Keys, and a Soldevi Digger to recur into a burn spell to kill his opponent. Kindle is clearly the better option, since it is capable of killing your opponent in the four shots you have (8 mana for four kindles, 8 mana to recur it four times), rather than the 7 needed by Incinerate. Assuming, of course, Fred mills himself sufficiently first.
Obviously, I'm pushing it. But it can be done. I'm sure I could design a combo that needed specifically Kindle, not Incinerate or any other burn spell. It's dumb, but it's possible.