Tribal Update Report: Modern Horizons

Oversoul

The Tentacled One
Welcome to the second Tribal Update Report. While War of the Spark was a power-packed set with some notable goodies for all formats, its effect on Tribal-focused gameplay was relatively quiet. Well, Modern Horizons is both a high-impact set in general and an unusually potent release for creature types. So this report potentially has more of interest than the previous one. Even so, I’ll try not to ramble on too much.

Before we cover anything else, I’d better address the elephants in the room. All ten of them. Unfortunately, this is not some cheeky way for me to introduce the awesome boost given to Elephant Tribal in this set. Sadly, it’s just that those ten cards are for all tribes. This set revisits the “Changeling” mechanic. And it does so in a pronounced fashion. In a lot of decks, Valiant Changeling is going to be a 3/3 double-striker for just WW. And of course Morophon, the Boundless is going to be an alluring tool for twelve-year-old players everywhere. Perhaps the most notable of these cards is Changeling Outcast, an unblockable black one-drop that can benefit from every tribal synergy. Wizards of the Coast wanted to make this a kind of “creature types matter” set, but found “Changeling” to be a good tool for that.The effects of these new cards on your Tribal games is going to depend on your rules, so the overall effect of this set is very much tied to that, which makes evaluating it rather tricky and nuanced, if we’re trying to be comprehensive. I feel like if we’re going as far as, for instance, considering the potential of Irregular Cohort in Ox Tribal, this sort of report is just going to be meaningless.

Personally, I endorse Mooseman’s proposal...

Mooseman said:
I would like to restrict Changeling, since they are a tribe unto themselves (Shapeshifters) and Mistform being an illusion. Say 16 creature cards that have the tribe actually printed on the card (or in errata) , then say no more than 2 of each changeling cards.
...but since these reports are currently to a hypothetical “Council” and the ruling on this mechanic isn’t set in stone, I assume nothing. Depending on the exact rules in a Tribal format, these new Changeling cards probably either boost a whole bunch of tribes that can use them, boost Shapeshifter Tribal specifically, or just get restricted anyway. I’ll continue this report essentially ignoring these cards. They’re generally good, but impossible to evaluate.

With that major issue out of the way, let’s move on to the next major issue! Oh yes, this bonkers set has some stuff going on. Specifically, this set has a new card called Plague Engineer. The name is similar to a card I’ve proposed should be banned: Engineered Plague. And as it happens, the card is similar too. But this one is a creature! And for Tribal formats, it’s even more overpowered than Engineered Plague. My first instinct is to say it should be added to the Banned List, right alongside Engineered Plague. However, there’s another consideration.

Plague Engineer is a carrier. And previously, Carrier Tribal was Tier 7. It had only four real members and was effectively unusable, despite the presence of the reasonably powerful Phyrexian Plaguelord. Allowing this tribe to use its newest member would automatically promote Carrier Tribal out of Tier 7, and the synergy between the existing cards and black recursion spells combined with the sheer power of Plague Engineer would let it dominate Tier 6 and even promote it out of Tier 5. It might even make its way into Tier 3. The card is just that strong. Really. Banning a card that is key to the viability of an entire tribe is something I’d only advocate with trepidation. But letting every black-heavy deck have a one-off deathtouch creature with Engineered Plague stapled to it would be format-warping, I contend. So I’m going with my first instinct and advocating for a ban on Plague Engineer.

With the introduction out of the way, let’s move on to the tribes…

New Tribes
None. Ha, that was easy.
 

Oversoul

The Tentacled One
New additions to existing tribes
Angel: This tribe only got one card, but it’s a solid new one-drop that gives it much-needed coverage in the early turns, which is vital when facing Tier 2 competition.

Artificer: Two new cards. It’s very likely that at least one of these improves the tribe’s position.

Avatar: One new card, and it can’t be cast with mana. It’s a potent niche card, but not suitable for the tribe. No real gain here.

Azra: One new card. This is only the second set to contain the type at all. It remains a particularly weak tribe. And this new card is better as a candidate for Ninja Tribal anyway.

Bear: Two new cards and the best tribal support for this type to date. This set is probably the biggest development for Bear Tribal ever.

Beast: Two new cards. No real impact.

Berserker: Three new cards. No cohesive theme and the tribe still doesn’t really have what looks like a solid gameplan.

Bird: Three new cards. Their abilities aren’t especially bad, but don’t fit with what a Bird Tribal deck would be going for. No impact.

Carrier: One new card, but I am proposing that it should be banned.

Cat: One new card, but it is a “lord” card, and those are generally boons to tribal decks.

Cleric: Two new cards, both powerful. Potentially useful tools depending on what form a Cleric Tribal deck takes.

Construct: One new card. With so many great cards in this set, it’s kind of flown under the radar that one of the strongest tribes got a powerful tribal synergy card. If I’d still harbored any notions that Construct Tribal was Tier 2 material, this card would have ended that easily.

Crab: One new card. Could be used to mill opponents through the deployment of Snow-Covered Islands, but it’s not great.

Cyclops: One new card. And it doesn’t shore up this tribe’s problems.

Demon: One new card. Doesn’t likely make the cut.

Devil: One new card. It’s mediocre.

Djinn: One new card. Sadly, it requires red mana, which is probably a dealbreaker.

Dragon: One new card. It’s quite good in the right archetype, but that archetype is probably not Dragon Tribal.

Drake: One new card. Too situational. Probably not useful.

Druid: Four new cards. Two of them seem pretty good and might bolster Druid Tribal.

Elemental: Three new cards. I don’t think I’d bother with them for Elemental Tribal.

Elf: Four new cards. As though this tribe needed any more help! A couple of cards that would be promising almost any other tribe, but they probably don’t even make the cut in Elf Tribal.

Elk: Two new cards. As unremarkable as these are at first glance, they actually kind of look like they help this tribe. Enough to matter? I’m not sure.

Faerie: One new card, but it’s possibly the best flying one-drop to date. Faeries continue to cement their place as a kind of Tier 1.5 tribe. As amazingly strong as Tier 2 tribes can be, I still say faeries have an edge on them, and this new card helps hone that edge.

Frog: One new card. Limited fodder. The reprint is great, though. But yeah, no impact.
 

Oversoul

The Tentacled One
Giant: One new card. And it’s a colorshifted Juzam Djinn, which is cool! Questionable impact, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely.

Goblin: Seven new cards. Goblins were already stacked, so these new cards don’t really make an impact on such a powerful tribe. Ha ha, just kidding! A couple of these new cards are so bonkers-good that even Goblin Tribal decks will potentially run them. Every tribe in Tier 1 is stupidly overpowered and which one is the best comes down to the exact format rules, the players, and some kind of metagame factors. But Goblin Tribal is looking great these days. And I think it just got better.

Golem: One new card. Only castable with snow mana. It’s decent, but probably the wrong start for Golem Tribal.

Horror: Three new cards. Depending on how Horror Tribal actually takes form, they may or may not make it into a decklist. Two of them probably don’t, but Cabal Therapist is a one-drop with a relevant combat ability and with excellent value in grindy games, so I’d keep it in mind for this type.

Human: Eighteen new cards. As usual, humans get the most of everything. Does Human Tribal even use any of these? Who knows? Humans, am I right?

Illusion: Two new cards. As a type that probably lags behind the rest of Tier 2, getting strong tools could really help Illusion Tribal compete. And the past couple of sets are potentially helping with that. I like it.

Insect: One new card. It sure looks cool, but totally doesn’t fit with what the tribe would be likely to do.

Knight: One new card. It’s an interesting one, but ultimately not strong enough, I suspect.

Kor: One new card. I didn’t think of it in terms of Kor Tribal before, but it’s actually a game-changer there. Kor Tribal is going to need to rely on cards like Nomads en-Kor and such if it’s going to get going. The new card synergizes with those old ones. It can also protect Stoneforge Mystic. Excellent.

Lizard: One new card. Doesn’t solve the problems faced by this tribe.

Masticore: One new card. The tribe remains in Tier 7 by default. If it ever leaves, this new card might be of interest.

Minotaur: One new card. Doesn’t seem like it helps the tribe much.

Naga: One new card. It seems quite good and gives Naga Tribal some unprecedented value in combat, specifically in getting attacks through unblocked.

Ninja: Eight new cards. This set was great for ninjas generally, but my warning about the mechanical issues of trying to pair the “Ninjutsu” ability with Ninja Tribal stands. If the new Changeling cards were to count, then the unblockable one-drop would be an extreme power-up for this tribe. Overall, I think a couple of these make the cut in Ninja Tribal and the creature type has improved in its potential capabilities.

Orc: One new card. It’s decent, but unremarkable. To drive home the point that goblins are better than orcs in Magic, the new Goblin Oriflamme is an upgrade to Orcish Oriflamme (or a return to the original text on the card, if you want to look at it that way).

Ouphe: One new card. This is, without a doubt, the best ouphe in the game. And then some. But Ouphe Tribal is still crap and this one card won’t change that.

Rhino: One new card. It’s fine, but it occupies a niche that Rhino Tribal didn’t need to fill. Really, a four-drop would have to be absurdly overpowered to make a difference at this point.

Scarecrow: One new card. It uses the “untap symbol” mechanic, which I’ve always found interesting. Good enough to see play? Well, I wasn’t sure what a good Scarecrow Tribal deck would look like before, and I’m still not.

Scout: Two new cards. I think they’re kind of bad.

Shaman: Three new cards. At least one of those is pretty strong too. Possible impact for this tribe. Not too likely, but possible.

Shapeshifter: Eleven new cards. All but one of them are Changeling creatures, but under Mooseman’s proposal, these cards couldbe used in Shapeshifter Tribal, as it’s essentially their real creature type. A few of them might even be worth it.

Skeleton: One new card. Double red mana requirement probably rules it out.

Sliver: Thirteen new cards. Slivers are a big deal in this set! Red and white are the notable winners this time. I don’t think that Sliver Tribal is Tier 1 yet, because that’s just asking a lot. But they have gotten better within Tier 2.

Slug: One new card. The tribe is still remarkably bad.

Snake: Two new cards. Both very strong, actually.

Soldier: Six new cards. A couple of them are good, but I don’t think they make the cut.

Specter: One new card. Strictly worse than Hypnotic Specter.

Spider: Two new cards. They do similar stuff to what existing spiders do, and that’s just not what the tribe needs this point. Until WotC has some sort of shift in their vision of what spiders are, the tribe probably stays about where it is. It has enough decent cards to stay out of Tier 4. And that’s about it.

Spirit: Three new cards. Two of them are unremarkable, but Soulherder has some potential in the right deck. Spirit Tribal probably doesn’t need the new card, but it seems playable. One could do worse.

Squid: One new card. And in case you’ve forgotten, which of course we all have, this tribe was one member short of leaving Tier 7. So this is a momentous occasion for Squid Tribal. Under my system, it is automatically promoted! So now it’s a question of how much the tribe gets promoted.

Treefolk: One new card. No impact.

Trilobite: One new card, and it’s a bizarre one. Both a trilobite and a...sliver? What? Why? Oh well, tribe’s still Tier 7.

Unicorn: One new card. A deficient tribe of small creature didn’t need a three-drop that makes subsequent creatures bigger. Waiting until this is on the board to cast your two-drops, so that they benefit from it, is just bad Magic.

Vampire: Two new cards. One has a Ninja Tribal synergy and isn’t of interest here. But the other is excellent and would easily see play in Vampire Tribal.

Vedalken: One new card. It’s fine, but requires black mana, and I’m not convinced that Vedalken Tribal should play black.

Viashino: One new card. It follows the same theme as other Viashino Sand[thing] cards, and probably doesn’t help the tribe.

Wall: One new card. It’s an option, but probably not what the tribe needs.

Warrior: Four new cards, all in red. Some potential options, depending on what a good Warrior Tribal deck even looks like.

Wizard: Eight new cards. A few of them are really quite good, and it’s just a question of whether they’re what Wizard Tribal can use. And I’m not convinced on any of these, but I might be underestimating them.

Wurm: One new card. Overcosted chaff.

Zombie: Six new cards. A couple of them are interesting, but Zombie Tribal is so stacked already that I just don’t think they make the cut.
 

Oversoul

The Tentacled One
New tribal synergy cards to look out for
Ayula’s Influence: Do token generators count when talking about tribal synergies? Well, this is one of the best token generators in recent memory. Combine it with land recursion and any kind of Bear Tribal synergy and you’ve got massive power.

Birthing Boughs: As this is not a creature itself, the usual spiel about the uncertain status of the Changeling mechanic doesn’t apply. It’s just an artifact that makes tokens, but it does so for every tribe. And some tribes could probably use this.

Deep Forest Hermit: With the caveat that Squirrel Tribal is Tier 7 and not actually playable at this time, it’s gotten some great synergies over the years. And this card is among the best for that. I mention it because it’s a considerable tribal synergy, even if it doesn’t really apply under our tentative format rules.

Morophon, the Boundless: So I’ve spoken in cautious terms about the usage of the Changeling mechanic. I won’t evaluate every Changeling card, but I’ll single this one out because any five-color tribal deck that is allowed to run a copy of it would probably do so.

Seasoned Pyromancer: A throwback to Young Pyromancer, this card has impressive token generation value. I do not think that Elemental Tribal particularly wants it, but I might be off-base on what an optimized Elemental Tribal deck looks like, and the efficiency of this card is noteworthy.

Serra the Benevolent: While it technically only makes angel tokens and doesn’t provide an actual Angel Tribal synergy, it does buff your flying creatures, and that functions with your angels, not just with the tokens it makes. It’s been my assumption in analyzing this card across multiple formats that you probably don’t tick it up to the ultimate anyway, but if you do, the ultimate is pretty great with Angel Tribal, as it’s a strong tribe for indestructible creatures.

Smoke Shroud: I suspect that this aura is a shoe-in for a Ninja Tribal deck.

Overall set analysis
The impact of any single new set on tribal formats is going to be dampened by the sheer depth of the previous 26+ years of Magic’s history. But unlike the previous set, this one rises above the level of a mere footnote and kind of shakes things up. It’s got a high overall power level and some demonstrable tribal focused stuff. I suspect that the full impact of this set won’t be apparent for some time. But perhaps more than any set since the Lorwyn/Shadowmoor Blocks, this is a Tribal gamechanger.

It may be a recurring theme for these updates, but part of the effect of this set is a kind of feeling that the rich get richer. Tribes that are already dominant get the most new toys and the best ones while weaker tribes are left hunting for table scraps.

Winners and losers for this set? Tier adjustments?
Winners might be…
  • Angels
  • Artificers
  • Cats
  • Constructs
  • Druids
  • Faeries
  • Goblins
  • Horrors
  • Illusions
  • Kor
  • Ninjas
  • Shapeshifters
  • Slivers
  • Snakes
  • Spirits
  • Squid
  • Vampires
  • Zombies

As I said last update, calling tribes losers out of a new set requires some explanation. No tribes literally lost members, but some either fell behind the competition or got new tools that can’t be used…
  • Demons got one new card that isn’t going to help and the competing tribes got better updates.
  • Dwarves got absolutely nothing. And for such a cosmopolitan set? Ouch.
  • Elves might not really be a loser here, but they might be in some tight competition with Goblins and/or Humans for total supremacy and those two both got some nice new cards, while elves did not.

I’ve talked this set up, and rightfully so. But as far as tier adjustments are concerned, a lot of the improvements are within a tier. Especially in the stronger tiers, where some of the biggest developments in this set have shown up, it takes a lot to get a tribe promoted.

Illusion Tribal was a tenuous inclusion in Tier 2 initially, but this set convinces me that the tribe is overall superior to the Tier 3 stuff. Not an actual promotion, but it’s a kind of validation for the tribe.

Kor Tribal got a boost from its new card, but I just don’t think it is Tier 2 material at this time. Getting close to changing my mind on that, but it’s not there yet.

Ninja Tribal has what it needs to advance. So I’ll move them up from Tier 4 to Tier 3.

Shapeshifter Tribal has become stronger, but it was already Tier 2 and it’s going to be almost impossible for a tribe to climb out of Tier 2.

Sliver Tribal is in a similar situation to Shapeshifter Tribal, but it is now possibly the strongest tribe in Tier 2. If I were to make a Tier 1.5, it’d be the Sliver Tier. Cloudshredder Sliver is bonkers. It’s possible that I should reevaluate my stance that Sliver Tribal is Tier 2 rather than Tier 1. For now, I’m not going to advocate a promotion.

On the other side of Tier 2, Snake Tribal is looking stronger than ever before, but I still think it fits best into Tier 3.

Squid Tribal automatically moves up out of Tier 7 now that it has five true members. I’m pegging it at Tier 5 in its current form.

Vampires also get better, but I don’t think that they’re as strong as slivers.
 

Oversoul

The Tentacled One
Ban list update recommendations
I advise the banning of the new card Plague Engineer. I also think a few cards might be able to come off the list, so I’m tentatively trimming Dark Depths, Entomb, and Personal Tutor. That would leave the following as an updated ban list.

All "ante" cards.
All cards with the "conspiracy" type.
Ancestral Recall
Balance
Bazaar of Baghdad
Black Lotus
Channel
Chaos Orb
Circle of Solace
Demonic Consultation
Demonic Tutor
Dig Through Time
Endemic Plague
Engineered Plague
Enlightened Tutor
Extinction
Falling Star
Gifts Ungiven
Hermit Druid
Imperial Seal
Intuition
Mana Crypt
Mishra's Workshop
Mox Emerald
Mox Jet
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Mox Sapphire
Mystical Tutor
Natural Order
Peer Pressure
Plague Engineer
Shahrazad
Skullclamp
Sneak Attack
Sol Ring
Time Vault
Time Walk
Tinker
Tolarian Academy
Trade Secrets
Treasure Cruise
True-Name Nemesis
Tsabo's Decree
Vampiric Tutor

Conclusion
In general, and for tribal formats in particular, this is a power-packed set with extremely high potential for upgrading multiple archetypes. If the rules of a tribal format aren’t set up to deal with them, the additions of several new potent Changeling creatures and of Plague Engineer would be extremely high-impact. But even setting those cards aside, the format offers some amazing new cards.

In this report, I’ve glossed over support spells and non-tribal bombs, but the set has those too, and in it usual, over-the-top fashion. Really, there’s too much to say about this set. I kept the same format as the previous update so that hopefully this doesn’t run too terribly long. But whereas War of the Spark was an unusually powerful set for support spells and a generally quiet set for tribal synergies and tribe adjustments, this set dials both knobs up to 11.

In the conclusion to the previous report, I noted that almost all actual Tribal gameplay that happens in real-life casual Magic is focused on the tribes that I designate as being in Tier 1 or Tier 2. And this set has really boosted some of those tribes. As ever, the rich get richer. In this case, Goblin Tribal is poised to retake its crown from the days of yore, when it was almost certainly the strongest tribe. But let’s not dismiss the boosts seen for slivers, vampires, faeries, constructs, shapeshifters, and illusions. Basically, this set is crazy. And the dedicated Tribal deckbuilder would do well to study its contents.
 
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